July 12 CAFÉ SCIENTIFIQUE ARLINGTON

WHAT:  ” Valence Politics and The  Science Of Electoral Choice: How Voters Make Big Decisions With Little Information”

WHEN: Tuesday, July 12, (Please note that this is the second Tuesday) program begins at 6:15 PM.  Come early to order food and drinks
WHERE: The Front Page Restaurant, 4201 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, VA, located near Ballston Metro on the ground floor of the NSF building. Parking is available under the NSF  Building or at Ballston Common Mall.
WHO:   Dr. Harold Clarke, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas atDallas

HOW: 5:30 p.m. Special half price burgers; please come early to order table service and socialize. Presentation begins at 6:15 p.m. followed by Q&A

No science background required, only interest!
Free and open to the public Registration  & donations requested www.arlingtonvirginiausa.com/bsta

ABOUT THE TOPIC:  The decisions American voters make are enormously important for the future of our country and often for the entire world.  National Science Foundation and comparable funding agencies in other countries have supported studies of the science of electoral choice and forces that drive these decisions.  We now know a great deal—the valence politics theory is a key theoretical development with strong empirical support.  Building on research in political psychology  and experimental economics, the valence politics theory argues that American voters (and their counterparts elsewhere) use leader images and partisan attachments as “fast and frugal” heuristics—easily accessible cues that facilitate political choice in contexts of high stakes and great uncertainty.  Voters are “smart enough to know they are not smart enough.”

The issues that count in elections typically are not positions upon which voters are deeply divided, but rather valence ones (emotions) upon which there is widespread consensus.  The prime example is the economy—virtually everyone wants a healthy economy with sustainable growth and low rates of unemployment and inflation.  Other prominent examples include affordable, effective health care, security from threats posed by terrorists and common criminals, and a clean, attractive environment.  When reacting to valence issues, voters focus heavily on “who can do the job”—performance not policy is what counts.

The power of the valence politics theory to explain the choices voters make is illustrated by analyses of national survey data gathered in the Political Support in America studies of voting in the 2008 U.S. presidential election, the 2010 congressional elections, and the 2010 California referendum (Proposition 23) on repealing the Air Pollution Control Act (AB 32).

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